Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 0.008859 0.010006 0.011245 0.012686 0.014315 0.016100 0.018205
2025-11-30 0.007163 0.008770 0.010654 0.013026 0.015936 0.019394 0.023823
2025-12-07 0.005899 0.007631 0.009775 0.012628 0.016331 0.020983 0.027288
2025-12-14 0.005081 0.006875 0.009198 0.012431 0.016825 0.022604 0.030808
2025-12-21 0.004399 0.006187 0.008594 0.012077 0.017003 0.023744 0.033710
2025-12-28 0.004099 0.005970 0.008578 0.012488 0.018220 0.026352 0.038823
2026-01-04 0.003798 0.005711 0.008462 0.012722 0.019177 0.028638 0.043646
2026-01-11 0.003559 0.005511 0.008403 0.013016 0.020224 0.031115 0.048939
2026-01-18 0.003255 0.005181 0.008114 0.012921 0.020649 0.032663 0.052905
2026-01-25 0.003011 0.004917 0.007895 0.012907 0.021182 0.034397 0.057285
2026-02-01 0.002754 0.004608 0.007577 0.012697 0.021368 0.035570 0.060818
2026-02-08 0.002585 0.004427 0.007445 0.012776 0.022029 0.037555 0.065860
2026-02-15 0.002386 0.004183 0.007196 0.012644 0.022333 0.038991 0.070130
2026-02-22 0.002282 0.004092 0.007197 0.012945 0.023415 0.041854 0.077187
2026-03-01 0.002075 0.003801 0.006827 0.012552 0.023217 0.042427 0.080109
2026-03-08 0.001919 0.003590 0.006579 0.012356 0.023354 0.043604 0.084231
2026-03-15 0.001757 0.003352 0.006263 0.012004 0.023165 0.044150 0.087180
2026-03-22 0.001712 0.003331 0.006346 0.012412 0.024457 0.047584 0.096050
2026-03-29 0.001647 0.003266 0.006339 0.012645 0.025420 0.050454 0.104030
2026-04-05 0.001593 0.003219 0.006363 0.012938 0.026523 0.053676 0.112997
2026-04-12 0.001499 0.003083 0.006201 0.012843 0.026827 0.055312 0.118781
2026-04-19 0.001421 0.002974 0.006085 0.012829 0.027294 0.057310 0.125496
2026-04-26 0.001329 0.002829 0.005883 0.012620 0.027330 0.058407 0.130335